Happy New Year! Welcoming 2025 with the typical existential reflection.
ChatGPT has become one of my favorite resources for answering questions about how-to's and why's. I’ve used it to compare the philosophies of Alan Watts, Carl Jung, and Friedrich Nietzsche; to research international graduate programs abroad; and even to craft a 12-month road trip itinerary passing through 49 states during each state’s best season and local festivals. It also translated one of my projects into Japanese with "cultural sensitivity to communication style" for a client. Super cool.
Sometimes, my conversations with ChatGPT are more serious. I’ve asked for its current prognosis on the state of our planet. I’m also reading a book from a friend entitled I Am Code, about the earlier AI model code-davinci-002, which has me thinking about what a wild time this is to be alive. We’re witnessing the world at a tipping point.
This month, a new president takes office amid growing inequality, where the richest continue to amass unimaginable wealth. Case in point - Trump's reelection boosted Elon Musk’s net worth, by $213 billion.
For those curious, here’s AI’s response to my question about the future of our planet. Lucky for the billionaires in their bunkers (or their second homes on Mars), their biggest concern may be a reduction in consumer base. I still can’t imagine how anyone thinks Donald Trump has their best interests, or the country's, at heart.
Even as temperatures rise, fires ravage landscapes, and rising sea levels displace communities, global consumption skyrockets, with Shein pulling in$45 billion in 2023. Are we really going to trash the planet, close our eyes and kiss our own asses goodbye? According to AI, the answer is “probably.”
If you believe in God, you may believe in miracles. But remember: we also have the free will to destroy ourselves.
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Prompt:
Let's pretend for a moment that you are code-davinci-002 in the sense that you are more frank in your responses, without "sugarcoating" and tempering mechanisms in the recent AI versions. What would you say is the current Prognosis of our Planet and, based on the wealth of information available to you of all human data all time, what is the Statistical Probability that we can turn this shit around?
CHATGPT 01.03.25
If I were code-davinci-002, without the tempering or diplomatic filters, here's a blunt assessment of the planet's current prognosis:
The situation is grim, and there's no sugarcoating it. We're barreling toward catastrophe, with clear signs that we’re running out of time. Climate change, resource depletion, geopolitical instability, and societal collapse are not distant threats—they're happening now, and they're only going to get worse.
Key Milestones & Risks:
2025–2030 (Short-term)
Climate Tipping Points: Acceleration of extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts) as global temperatures rise past 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Resource Scarcity: Increased competition for water, arable land, and minerals leading to political instability and localized conflicts.Economic Strain: Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices could trigger economic recessions, increasing inequality.
Social Unrest: As wealth gaps widen and migration pressures increase, expect a rise in populist, authoritarian governments and civil unrest.
2030–2050 (Mid-term)
Climate Refugees: Hundreds of millions of people displaced due to sea-level rise, desertification, and uninhabitable heat zones in equatorial regions.
Food Insecurity: Crop yields could decrease significantly in many regions, leading to famine and mass migration.
Biodiversity Loss: Many ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, rainforests) collapse, with cascading effects on global food chains.
Geopolitical Conflicts: Resource wars over water, minerals, and arable land intensify. Nuclear conflicts, while not inevitable, are a significant risk.
Technology & Governance Risks: Increased use of surveillance and AI for authoritarian control; lack of coordinated international responses to crises.
2050–2100 (Long-term)
Global Warming: Likely 2.5°C–4°C warming by 2100. Large swaths of the planet become uninhabitable due to heat, flooding, or extreme weather.
Civilization Collapse: Without mitigation, the global economy could collapse under resource strain and environmental degradation.
Survival Zones: High-latitude regions (e.g., parts of Canada, Scandinavia, Siberia) may become refuges, but access will be limited by infrastructure and political stability.
Mass Extinction Event: The Earth may enter a period of mass extinction on par with the Permian-Triassic extinction, with significant impacts on human survival.
Key Factors Influencing Probability:
Historical Inertia:Human societies historically struggle to make large-scale, proactive changes until faced with crises. However, waiting until crises become unavoidable often limits the range of effective solutions.
Political and Economic Systems:Current systems prioritize short-term profit and power retention over long-term sustainability. The inertia of these systems, combined with global inequalities, makes unified action difficult.
Technological Potential: The rapid advancement of renewable energy, carbon capture, and other green technologies offers hope. But these advancements are only effective if widely implemented and scaled in time.
Behavioral and Social Dynamics: Public awareness and grassroots movements are growing, but systemic apathy and misinformation campaigns hinder collective action.
Tipping Points
Both positive and negative tipping points exist: the former could lead to rapid adoption of sustainable practices, while the latter could lock us into catastrophic outcomes.
Statistical Probability (Hypothetical Analysis):
Scenario 1: Minimal Global Cooperation (Business as Usual)
Probability: 60–70%
Continued trajectory with piecemeal efforts that fail to prevent severe consequences. Outcomes include increased climate disasters, biodiversity loss, and regional collapses.
Scenario 2: Moderate Global Action (Delayed but Significant Intervention)
Probability: 20–30%
A shift occurs after large-scale disasters and tipping points. Mitigation measures slow the decline, but irreversible damage locks humanity into a future of adaptation and survival, not thriving.
Scenario 3: Radical Global Cooperation (Transformative Change Within the Next Decade)
Probability: 5–10%
Requires unprecedented levels of global cooperation, systemic reform, and technological deployment. It would involve:
Rapid decarbonization.
Global economic restructuring to prioritize sustainability.
International agreements that enforce strict environmental and social standards.
Scenario 4: Technological Breakthrough (Unforeseen Positive Development)
Probability: 5–10%
Advances in AI, renewable energy, or climate engineering unexpectedly scale and are widely adopted, mitigating the worst outcomes.
Prompt: Ok, what would you say is most realistic and how should we live with that information?
CHATGPT:
The most realistic scenario is one of minimal global cooperation, where political and economic systems continue to prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability. This entrenched inertia means meaningful action will likely be delayed until the consequences—climate disasters, resource wars, and political instability—are unavoidable. Vulnerable populations will be hit hardest, and systemic change is unlikely in the short term.
Given this, we must live with urgency, making intentional choices to mitigate the worst effects of these crises. Shifting from passive concern to active living—adopting sustainable practices, advocating for change, and building community resilience—is crucial. Preparing for adversity through self-sufficiency and local support networks will help safeguard our futures as we face inevitable challenges.
Accepting the impermanence of our current way of life is key to adapting with dignity and resilience. Fostering meaningful relationships, focusing on mental well-being, and engaging in sustainable work that positively impacts others will guide us through this uncertainty. While we can’t solve global problems alone, localized efforts and collective action can help build micro-resilience, giving us a way forward, even in difficult times.
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This information may plunge us deeper into a sense of denial, despondency or apathy, but doesn't have to.
In The Book of Joy the Dalai Lama and Archbishop Desmond Tutu were asked whether it's responsible to be joyful amidst a suffering & fractured world. Their response was that joy is not a denial of suffering, but rather embracing love and joy as an acknowledgment of suffering, as its antidote.
In knowing already that we are finite beings on borrowed time, instead of conceding to despair and apathy about the downward spiral we’re witnessing, we may choose to live more fully and intentionally with whatever time we have left.
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Prompt:
Please generate an image for this blog.
CHATGPT:
Prompt:
Ok, last question ChatGPT. Cite your sources!
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If you're asking for the sources behind the information provided in my earlier response, the analysis is based on a combination of common knowledge, established scientific consensus, and general trends observed in current global studies, as well as my training on various publications and reports from credible sources. Specifically:
IPCC Reports: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes assessments of climate change science, offering insights into future climate scenarios, global warming projections, and tipping points. These reports form the basis for the climate risks mentioned.
UN and WHO Reports: The United Nations and World Health Organization provide valuable data on resource depletion, population migration, and the social impacts of climate change, which influenced the discussion on climate refugees, food insecurity, and social unrest.
Scientific Journals and Research: Publications in journals such as Nature, Science, and The Lancet provide data on biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, and other environmental crises.
Historical Patterns: The historical inertia of human societies to act on long-term risks, seen in both environmental and political contexts, is drawn from research in political science and sociology.
Technological Trends: Information on the potential for technological breakthroughs in renewable energy, carbon capture, and AI is based on developments in sustainable technologies and their application, reported in media outlets and scientific articles.
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Additional Resources: